Overall, the counteroffensive is "likely to start quite soon" and "is likely to be good and effective", but it "is not going chase every Russian out of Ukraine," he said.Ī video posted online by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has prompted a frenzy of speculation as to its significance. So far the Russian airforce has been "mute" due to effective Ukrainian air defences, but they are running out of ammunition which may "unlock" their capabilities, said the general. Sir Richard added the most likely outcome of Ukraine's long-anticipated counter-attack is a stalemate, which will make it harder for Western forces to deny Ukraine modern fighter jets if they want Ukraine to win the war. "As long as the Ukrainian will to fight exists, as long as the Western will to keep paying and equipping them exists, this scale of war - with this sort of 900-mile frontline? Two to three years is more realistic," he said. He estimated war will continue for up to three years, as neither side will talk until "they have nothing left to gain by fighting" - and "we are nowhere near that point". The Ukrainian counteroffensive is very unlikely to end the war, said a former commander of the UK's joint forces command.īetween 30,000 and 60,000 soldiers will face 300,000 Russians and 900 miles of frontlines fortified over the last year, explained General Sir Richard Barrons. it is high time to think what are the costs and opportunities for Russia after Putin's defeat and removal." "Instead of trying to figure out what part of Ukraine will be enough for Putin.
"The defeat of Putin' atrocious plans should be separated from the defeat of Russia," he says.
Mr Yudin goes on to stress the importance of how defeat for Russia is framed to the public. While conceding he is no military expert, he says his understanding of morale among troops means he "wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian army collapses after a couple of setbacks".
Their language projects defeat, and this is what I often hear – 'I don’t know how this can possibly end with a victory'." Noting the frequent and prominent criticisms of the war effort from military figures including Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, he says: "The whole public fight between feudal warlords makes it extremely difficult to imagine this army achieving any success. This is a mood I notice in people from various industries, all of them rather elevated." "That applies perhaps mostly to those who tend to support Putin in this war for one reason or another (mainly because they fail to make difference between Putin’s and national interests).
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"While majority in Russia remains detached and prefers to avoid bad thoughts, those who dare to think are increasingly accepting that the war is likely to end with a defeat," he said in a series of posts on Twitter. He suggests that while the term "defeat" was uttered by no one in reference to the conflict in its early months, it is now happening "really often". A fascinating insight into the current mood of Russian people has been offered by Greg Yudin, Head of Political Philosophy at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences.
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